Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
